What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 30, 2012

Mortgage markets were mostly unchanged last week for the second straight week. Spain made few moves to allay concerns from its investors, the Federal Reserve did little to change its message on the U.S. economy, and newly-released economic data was in-line with expectations.

Conforming mortgage rates in Georgia idled last week, remaining near all-time lows for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage; and the 5-year ARM.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey, last week's mortgage rates, as averaged from more than 125 banks nationwide, were as follows :

• 30-year fixed rate mortgage : 3.88% with 0.7 discount points
• 15-year fixed rate mortgage : 3.12% with 0.6 discount points
• 5-year adjustable rate mortgage : 2.85% with 0.6 discount points

A discount point is a one-time closing cost and is equal to one percent of your overall loan size. This means that a mortgage applicant with a $100,000 mortgage and an accompanying 0.7 discount points would be responsible for paying an upfront charge of $700 at the time of closing.

Freddie Mac's mortgage rates assume full closing costs, too.

This week, it's unclear whether Canton mortgage rates will rise or fall.

There are few economic data points due for release so mortgage markets are expected to take their cues from Europe where there's no shortage of story lines.

In Spain, there are protests over new austerity measures. In France, a new President may be elected -- one whom opposes austerity. In the Netherlands, a new budget passed that includes austerity measures, but barely.

Each storyline generates uncertainty about the future of Europe and its unified economy. As the uncertainty grows, global investors seek safety in the U.S. mrotgage bond market, a move that helps mortgage rate shoppers. When demand for mortgage bonds is high, mortgage rates tend to improve.

Also affecting mortgage rates this week will be Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report.

The economy is expected to have added 165,000 net new jobs in April and the Unemployment Rate is believed to have remained unchanged at 8.2%. If there is a deviation from either of these expectations, mortgage rates will change. If the actual jobs data is stronger than Wall Street expectations, mortgage rates are likely to rise.

If the jobs report is weak, mortgage rates should fall.

Pending Home Sales Index Crosses The 100 Barrier

After a series of worse-than-expected data last month, the housing market appears to be back on track.

The Pending Home Sales Index posted 101.4 in March, a four percent gain from the month prior and the index's highest reading since April 2010 -- the last month of that year's federal home buyer tax credit.

A "pending home" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The Pending Home Sales Index is tracked and published by the National Association of REALTORS® monthly.

The March report marks the index's first 100-plus reading in nearly two years.

To home buyers and sellers throughout Georgia , this is statistically significant because the Pending Home Sales Index is normalized to 100, a value corresponding to the average home contract activity in 2001, the index's first year of existence. 2001 was an historically-strong year for the housing market.

The March 2012 Pending Home Sales Index, therefore, puts current market activity on par with market activity from 2001.

You wouldn't know it from reading this week's papers, though. There have been stories about how the Case-Shiller Index put home values at new loans; and how the Existing Home Sales figures unexpectedly dropped off; and how the New Home Sales report was a laggard.

But this is why the Pending Home Sales Index can be so important.

What makes the Pending Home Sales Index different from those other data points is that the Pending Home Sales Index is a "forward-looking" housing market indicator.

Unlike most data which aims to tell us how the housing market performed at some point in the past, the Pending Home Sales Index attempts to tell us how the housing market will perform at some point in the future. 

80% of homes under contract close within 2 months. Many more close within months 3-4. Therefore, on the strength of the March Pending Home Sales Index, we should expect a strong April and May nationwide

If you're shopping for homes right now, consider taking advantage while the market remains somewhat soft. Mortgage rates are low and home prices are, too. It can make for a good home-buying conditions.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (April 25, 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday.

For the fifth consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, dissented in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008. It is expected to remain near-zero through 2014, at least.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the U.S. economy has been "expanding moderately" since the FOMC's last meeting in March. Beyond the next few quarters, the Fed expects growth to "pick up gradually". 

This key phrase will likely be repeated by the press. It suggests that the economy is no longer contracting; instead moving along a path of slow, consistent expansion.  

In addition, the Fed acknowledged that "strains in global financial markets" continue to pose "significant downside risks" to long-term U.S. economic outlook. This is in reference to the sovereign debt concerns of Greece, Spain and Italy, and the potential for a broader European economic slowdown.

The Fed's statement included the following notes :

1. The housing sector remains "depressed"
2. Labor conditions have "improved in recent months"
3. Household spending has "continued to advance"

Also, with respect to inflation, the Fed said that the higher oil and gasoline prices from earlier this year will affect inflation "only temporarily", and that inflation rates will return to stable levels soon.

At its meeting, the Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs. The Fed re-affirmed its intentions to hold the Fed Funds Rate at "exceptionally low" levels through late-2014, and to buy mortgage-backed bonds in the open market.

Immediately following the FOMC's statement, mortgage markets improved slightly, pressuring mortgage rates lower in Marietta and nationwide.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event slated for June 19-20, 2012.